Using Future Age Profiles to Improve Immigration Projections
Marianne Tönnessen
Terje Skjerpen
10.17045/sthlmuni.11378514.v1
https://su.figshare.com/articles/preprint/Using_Future_Age_Profiles_to_Improve_Immigration_Projections/11378514
<p>Young adults migrate more than
elderly people. As populations in many origin countries get older, this may
affect out-migration – and thus immigration to other countries. This is usually
not taken into account in projections of future immigration, even though a
marked ageing is expected to take place globally. We show how United Nations’
projections of future age profiles in origin countries can be combined with
emigration rates by age groups to improve national projections of immigration
to a destination country, exemplified by Norway. Using several methods for
projecting future migration, our results show that projected immigration tends
to decline when taking expected ageing in origin regions into account. Further,
we demonstrate how such declines in projected immigration affect the
projections for the total Norwegian population up to 2100. Our results suggest
that by taking changing age profiles in origin regions into account in
immigration projections, the projected population size in Norway would be
reduced equivalent to that of reducing the fertility assumptions by 0.1
children per woman.</p>
2019-12-17 09:19:27
migration
immigration
population projections
age structure
ageing
Stockholm Reports in Demography
Sociologiska institutionen
Department of Sociology
SUDA
Stockholm University Demography Unit
Stockholms universitets demografiska avdelning
Demography not elsewhere classified
Sociology