10.17045/sthlmuni.7000907.v2
Andrea Fuentes Monti
Andrea
Fuentes Monti
Sven Drefahl
Sven
Drefahl
Eleonora Mussino
Eleonora
Mussino
Juho Härkönen
Juho
Härkönen
Over-coverage in Swedish Population Registers Leads to Bias in Demographic Estimates
Stockholm University
2018
Stockholm Research Reports in Demography
Sociologiska institutionen
Department of Sociology
SUDA
Stockholm University Demography Unit
Stockholms universitets demografiska avdelning
Over-coverage
Fertility
Demography not elsewhere classified
2018-09-03 08:36:58
Preprint
https://su.figshare.com/articles/preprint/Over-coverage_in_Swedish_Population_Registers_Leads_to_Biasin_Demographic_Estimates/7000907
Abstract: Estimating the number of individuals that live in a country has always been among the essential tasks for demographers. In this study we assess the potential bias in estimating the size of different migrant populations due to over-coverage in a country’s population-register system. Over-coverage, i.e., from individuals registered but not living in a country, constitutes an increasingly pressing phenomenon and is tightly linked to differential patterns of registered emigration. However, there is no common understanding on how to deal with over-coverage in demographic estimates and research. This study examines different approaches to over-coverage estimation and discusses ways of improving current estimation methods using Swedish total population register data for the years 1990-2012. We assess over-coverage levels across migrant groups, test how estimates of age-specific fertility and mortality are affected when adjusting for over-coverage, and examine whether over-coverage can explain parts of the healthy migrant paradox. Our results confirm the existence of over-coverage. When adjusting for over-coverage, we find substantial changes in mortality and fertility rates for people in migrating ages. Our results suggest that accounting for over-coverage is particularly essential for correctly estimating fertility in migrant populations.