On the human inability to process inverse variables in intuitive judgments: Different cognitive processes leading to a time loss bias

2020-02-18T08:44:52Z (GMT) by Ola Svenson

We investigated the time loss bias: overestimation of time lost after a speed decrease from high speeds and underestimations after decrease from low driving speeds. The bias depends to a great extent on the human inability to use correctly inverse variables in intuitive judgments. Participants judged the speed decrease from one speed (e.g., 130 kmph) that would give the same time loss as a decrease from another speed (e.g., from 40 to 30 kmph). We carried out descriptive spectral analyses of distributions of judgments for each problem. Each distribution peak was associated with a judgment rule. The first study found two different judgment processes both leading to the time loss bias: a Difference process rule used for 20% and a Ratio rule used for 31% of the judgments. The correct rule applied to 10% of the judgments. The second study replicated the first study and added verbal protocols. The results showed that the Ratio rule was most common (41%) followed by the Difference (12%) and correct (8%) rules. Verbal reports supported these results.

The data can be reached and processed by open statistical programs like JAMOVI https://www.jamovi.org/ ,or any Rbased statistical program as well as by PSPP https://www.gnu.org/software/pspp/




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