Downward Social Mobility and Fertility Decline in Russia

This study assesses whether downward social mobility (DSM) contributed to the recent fertility decline in Russia. Event history analysis estimates suggest that DSM suppressed second birth risks; however, this impact was stronger for men under the Soviet regime and remained similar for women before and after transition began. Decomposing the impact of DSM by its timing shows that experiencing DSM after the first child was born, but not before, had a consistently negative influence on second births across both time periods. Only for women and after market reform does experiencing DSM before becoming a parent influence fertility decisions. DSM is a specific pathway through which the economic transition and crisis impacted fertility and the results demonstrate how increasing inequality and job instability influence fertility behavior.