Employment Uncertainty and Fertility Decision-Making: Migrant-Native Disparities in Sweden and Norway

In recent decades, significant social and demographic shifts have occurred globally, such as the declining fertility rate in Europe, increased job insecurity, and rising migration to the Global North. Despite migrants facing heightened job insecurity, there has been limited research on how employment uncertainty affects their fertility intentions. This study aims to investigate whether the subjective perception of employment uncertainty and contractual uncertainty or unemployment influence fertility decision-making differently among migrant and Swedish-born men and women. Using binary logistic regression models, the study examines the impact of employment uncertainty, including contract type, subjective perception, and unemployment on short-term fertility intentions. Data from the Generations and Gender Survey II (GGS-II) conducted in 2020-2021 in Sweden and Norway is analysed, including Western-born migrants, non-Western born migrants and native-born men and women aged 18-50 who report being physically able to have children. The findings suggest that the impact of employment uncertainty, both when contractual and when subjective, differs between non-Western migrants and Norwegian and Swedish-born individuals. On the other hand, the childbearing intentions of Western-born migrants seem to respond to employment uncertainty similarly as the intentions of the native-born individuals. The study confirms the previous finding that perceived and contractual employment uncertainty generally has a negative effect on fertility intentions in Sweden and Norway. This effect is more pronounced among men. However, the negative effect is reversed for non-Western migrants, who are more likely to state positive fertility intentions under employment uncertainty, including non-permanent contracts and anticipation of job loss. Notably, the disparities are more pronounced among men than women, highlighting the need for further research on migrant men's fertility intentions. The study suggests that while institutional settings influence fertility decision-making, migrants from different origins and native-born individuals respond differently to labour market uncertainties. These findings underscore the importance of considering the heterogeneity within migrant populations when studying fertility intentions and are crucial for informing future employment and family policies to better support the growing migrant population.