Employment stability following unemployment and manpower programs

Although important for our understanding of the dynamics of both unemployment and manpower program participation, the question of employment stability subsequent to unemployment has received relatively little attention to date. Here, the determinants of the duration of single and concatenated employment spells that follow upon unemployment or manpower programs are analyzed, using hazard models and data pertaining to Swedish youth. The analyses include a comparatively detailed specification of the individuals' previous labor market history, in particular as regards unemployment and program participation.

The results indicate that the main determinants of employment stability are education and labor market history variables. Particularly interesting is the increased employment duration associated with coming directly from manpower programs. This result appears to be a product of a positive occurrence effect and a positive duration effect of program participation. Finally, while there in general are negative effects of previous unemployment, no effect of the length of the latest unemployment spell is found.