Preprints are manuscripts made publicly available before they have been submitted for formal peer review and publication. They might contain new research findings or data. Preprints can be a draft or final version of an author's research but must not have been accepted for publication at the time of submission.
posted on 04.03.2019by Marianne Tönnessen
Abstract: In many Western countries, the total fertility rate (TFR) of
immigrant women has declined over the last decades. This report proposes two
methods for explaining such changes in the aggregate immigrant fertility level:
what-if scenarios and a formal decomposition. Both methods disentangle the
effect of changed composition – by origin area and duration of stay – from the
effect of changed fertility within subgroups. The methods are applied to data
from Norway, where immigrant TFR declined from 2.6 births per women in 2000 to
below 2.0 in 2017. The results show that this decline cannot be explained by
successful integration, nor by changed composition of immigrant women by origin
area or duration of stay. A main reason for the decline is found among newly
arrived immigrant women, particularly from Asia. They have a considerably lower
fertility now than what the newly arrived had 15-20 years ago. After
investigating several possible explanations for the TFR decline among the newly
arrived, decreased fertility in origin areas is suggested as a key driver.