Growing significance of employment uncertainty on fertility intention in Sweden: Results from the Generations and Gender Surveys

BACKGROUND: The recent fertility decline in Sweden seems to be concentrated among individuals with weaker labor market positions. However, the relationship between employment uncertainty and fertility change is not quite clear.

OBJECTIVE: To better understand the relationship between labor market positions and fertility, we investigate the association between employment uncertainty and short-term fertility intention using different measures of employment uncertainty.

METHODS: We conduct multivariate logistic regressions to examine whether the relationship between employment uncertainty and short-term fertility intention changed between two rounds of the Generations and Gender Surveys conducted in 2012/2013 and 2021. Sequence analysis is applied to operationalize previous employment uncertainty with complexity scores.

RESULTS: The logistic regressions show that previous unemployment is unrelated to fertility intention in the two Swedish GGSs. However, current employment uncertainty was positively associated with short-term fertility intention in the GGS 2012 but negatively in the GGS 2021.

CONCLUSIONS: The substantial yet unanticipated reversal in the relationship between current employment uncertainty and fertility intention indicates so far unresearched changes in the labor market and in individuals’ reasoning for or against a child.

CONTRIBUTION: The study provides new insights into the observed polarization in fertility outcomes across labor market positions in Sweden.