Migrants and natives’ childbearing intentions in Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic was first and foremost a health emergency but it led to considerable social, financial and labour market losses. Individuals may have adjusted their behaviour in response to the costs of the pandemic, postponing irreversible commitments, such as having children. However, the consequences of the pandemic have not been equally distributed. Studies have shown that migrants have experienced higher excess mortality and greater job and financial losses compared to natives. Migrants’ Total Fertility Rate in Sweden registered a decline in 2021 compared to previous years. This decline could be partially attributed a more negative subjective perception of risk, due to the severe health and economic impact of the pandemic on migrants. Using the 2021 Swedish Gender and Generation Survey we investigate the role of worries about economic and health issues related to the global pandemic in shaping migrants versus natives’ short-term intentions to have or have a (another) child. We anticipated that a negative perception of the pandemic's future and its impact on health, social, and financial conditions would more adversely affect migrants' intentions compared to Swedish natives. However, we found this effect only in financial and work conditions among European migrants. Conversely, for non-European migrants, concerns about the future appear to encourage short-term childbearing intentions.