Mortality advantage reversed: The causes of death driving all-cause mortality differentials between migrants, the descendants of migrants and ancestral natives in Sweden, 1997-2016
preprintposted on 10.06.2021, 15:25 by Matthew Wallace
Although the descendants of migrants comprise growing shares of the resident populations of rich countries, we know little about their adult mortality in comparison to what we know about migrants. This is predominantly due to their smaller population sizes and younger age profiles, fundamental issues that render analysing their adult mortality difficult. Here, I take advantage of the size and scope of the Swedish register data to investigate all-cause and cause-specific mortality among three migrant-origin generations: the G1 (migrants arriving as adults), G15 (migrants arriving as children), and G2 (those born in Sweden to at least one migrant parent) relative to ancestral Swedes. I use competing-risks survival analysis with an extended survival setup to study mortality among people aged 15-44 from 1997 to 2016. I ask, how does the all-cause mortality of the G1, G15, and G2 differ from ancestral Swedes and what causes of deaths are driving these differentials? For all-causes, I find that, for most origins the lower mortality of the G1 – relative to ancestral Swedes – contrasts with the higher mortality of the G15 and G2. Exceptions are G1 Finns and Sub-Saharan Africans who, like the G15 and G2, have excess mortality. The advantages of the G1 and the disadvantages of the G15 and G2 are driven by sizeable differences in external mortality, including accidents and suicides. These findings raise major concern about long-run integration and the experiences of migrant-origin populations in Sweden.