Not Only Births, But Also Intentions:The Decline of Fertility Intentions in Sweden in the 2010s

The decline of the Total Fertility Rates in Western countries and in particular in the Nordic region has puzzled demographers. Researchers assume that the decline is associated with increasing perception of uncertainties about the future. In this study, we explore whether fertility intentions have also declined and whether individuals have become more uncertain about future childbearing. We compare childbearing intentions voiced by participants in the 2012 and 2021 Swedish Generations and Gender Surveys. We present weighted frequencies of respondents’ answers to the question whether they definitely or probably intend to have a(nother) child in the next three years and (if not) whether they ever intend to have a(nother) child. Intentions to definitely have a(nother) child have declined among almost all groups of society and common demographic indicators (gender, age, education, employment, partnership, parity, and regions) and uncertainties about future childbearing have increased. The intention declines also occurred among the young and among childless respondents who live in a partnership, pointing to a growing tendency to remain childfree among two highly relevant groups for future fertility development. The decline in intentions and the increase in childbearing uncertainties indicate that the ongoing fertility decline cannot be classified as a temporary phenomenon. The results rather suggest that the decline continues, because childbearing intentions are rarely fully realized. Our results are a step ahead to unravel the puzzle of declining fertility in the Nordic region and beyond. The findings reveal that individuals have become more uncertain about future childbearing and that they are more likely to retreat from (current or future) childbearing than at the beginning of the 2010s.