Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan

The fertility rates of Kazakhstan have reversed to levels not seen since several decades ago. The striking fertility increase poses questions on the extent to which this new development is shared across socio-demographic groups and the nature of fertility recuperation. The current study employs UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data and event-history modelling to analyse parity progressions one to four. The results suggest a sustained fertility increase that is not merely associated with the recuperation of delayed first births, but a genuine increase across all birth orders. This pattern was evident for both main ethnicities in Kazakhstan and across educational groups. The gradual increase of higher-order births, especially among ethnic Kazakhs, indicates either a reversed fertility transition or the fact that the previous fertility decline in the 1990s was not a part of a general transition towards below-replacement fertility but rather reflects a situation where fertility and the business-cycle are positively correlated.