The distribution of reproduction during a fertility transition: Declining spread of parenthood in Brazil

<p dir="ltr">Demographers have a rich understanding of the fertility transitions that have been observed in many contexts. Yet, we lack evidence on whether long-run declines in fertility levels are accompanied by simultaneous changes in reproductive variability. This is an important gap because reproductive variability—concentration and dispersion of childbearing—may help to better explain fertility trends and predict population change. We address this gap with a case study of Brazil, which is a well-known example of a fertility transition, with microdata on fertility by education for cohorts born 1910-70. We contribute new knowledge using multiple measures of variability in levels of completed fertility. We study how these measures change during an entire transition, how they relate to cohort fertility rates, and how this evidence varies by education. Reproductive variability declines across the Brazilian fertility transition—for measures of concentration and dispersion—although this is less evident when using measure of dispersion that adjusts for levels of children ever born. We also find considerable heterogeneity by education, and evidence that several measures of variability are predictive of fertility decline, highlighting a promising avenue for future research. Moreover, our findings suggest that conclusions based on one measure of variability may only provide a partial understanding of population dynamics.</p>