Understanding Asylum-seeker Approval and Reception Center Dynamics in Norway

<p dir="ltr"><i>Background</i>: Most research on asylum-seeker integration begins after refugee status is granted. There is little knowledge about the asylum-seeking period, in particular demographic selection into whose claims are approved and reception center dynamics prior to settlement.</p><p dir="ltr"><i>Objective</i>: This paper investigates (1) variation in the likelihood of being granted asylum, and (2) differences in outcomes within the asylum center system following arrival in a first ordinary reception center in Norway.</p><p dir="ltr"><i>Methods</i>: Using linked administrative registers covering all asylum-seekers arriving in Norway between 2005-2016 (N ≈ 101,700), event history models are estimated to analyze time to decision, approval probabilities, and competing risks of exit from the first reception center.</p><p dir="ltr"><i>Results</i>: Asylum outcomes and reception center trajectories vary systematically by year of arrival, country of origin, sex, age, and family status. Women and unaccompanied minors have higher approval probabilities, whereas young men arriving alone appear to face a <i>‘labor migrant penalty’</i>. Syrians and Eritreans experience relatively stable reception center stays, with both high approval rates and high risks of direct resettlement from the first center. In contrast, other groups, such as Iraqis, face longer waiting times and higher risks of relocation.</p><p dir="ltr"><i>Contribution</i>: This study provides a comprehensive, register-based analysis of asylum approval and reception center pathways in Norway. By documenting demographic selection into refugee status and variations in reception center (in)stability, it advances understanding of how early stages of the asylum process can shape integration prospects and the composition of refugee populations.</p>